AA-WP-2018-001
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- March 31, 2018 Create Date
- June 5, 2019 Last Updated
A Risk Review of Urban Mobility Vehicle Concepts: Applying the Evolutionary Lessons of the Past to the Future
Extract:
At the start of any technological or market revolution, there is an evolutionary explosion of ideas and concepts. This can be conceptualized similarly to the Cambrian Explosion of 541 million years ago. Over time the many genetic variations are naturally selected until only the variations that naturally suit their environment or are able to adapt to their environment survive.
This effect can be observed to a lesser or greater extent when any technological breakthrough is developed in a relatively free market.
Phase 1:
Many organizations will evolve many different designs which will be tested in the market and regulatory environments. Over time different archetypes made by several manufacturers will survive the natural selection process.
Phase 2:
In the long term, these organizations will grow their market share, reduce in number through consolidation and will stabilize as two or more large organizations.
These two phases can be characterized as ‘Conceptual Cull’ and ‘Corporate Consolidation’.
This white paper is concerned with the ‘Conceptual Cull’ phase.
This paper is not entirely scientific in nature. Where possible empirical assessments are made. These assessments are combined with the informed experience of the author and the reviewers in order to draw rational conclusions.
| File | Action |
|---|---|
| AA-WP-2018-001 A Risk Review of Urban Mobility Vehicle Concepts.pdf | Download |
| AA-WP-2018-001 SPREADSHEET TOOL.xlsx | Download |
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