NASA-CEH-APP-J
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Appendix J; Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL) Analysis
Appendix J: Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence
Level (JCL) Analysis
Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL) analysis is an integration of cost, schedule, risk and
uncertainty. The result of a JCL analysis indicates the probability that a project’s cost will be equal to or
less than the targeted cost and that the schedule will be equal to or less than the targeted finish. The
following topics are described in this appendix:
J.1. JCL Introduction
J.1.1. Purpose
J.1.2. History of JCL Policy
J.1.3. Requirements
J.1.4. Roles and Responsibilities
J.1.5. Data to Conduct JCL at KDP-C
J.1.6. JCL Process Flow
J.1.7. JCL Methodology and Tool Section
J.2. Integrated Schedule
J.2.1. Developing a JCL Schedule
J.2.2. Schedule Assessment
J.3. Cost Estimating
J.3.1. Cost Loading
J.4. Risk Assessment
J.4.1. Risk Management System
J.4.2. Schedule/Cost Uncertainty
J.4.3. Risk Factors
J.4.4. Correlation
J.5. Reporting
J.5.1. Cumulative Statistical Results
J.5.2. Scatterplot
J.5.3. Sensitivity Reports
J.5.4. Advanced Results
Works Cited
Acknowledgments
J.1. JCL Introduction
Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL) analysis is a process that combines a project's cost,
schedule, and risk into a complete picture. JCL is not necessarily a specific methodology (e.g., resource-
Appendix J
JCL Analysis J-1 February 2015
NASA Cost Estimating Handbook Version 4.0
loaded schedule) or a product from a specific tool. The JCL calculation includes consideration of the risk
associated with all elements, regardless of whether or not they are funded from NASA’s appropriations or
managed outside of the project (e.g. a partner contribution).
A JCL identifies the probability that a given project or program cost will be equal to or less than the
targeted cost AND that the schedule will be equal to or less than the targeted schedule date. There are
two fundamental ways that one could generate a JCL: 1) bivariate distributions1 and 2) probabilistically
cost loading a probabilistic schedule (Probabilistic Cost-Loaded Schedule [PCLS]). Both methodologies
will fundamentally produce a JCL; however, to fulfill the intent of the NASA JCL policy requirement, it is
intended that a project or program perform the latter (probabilistic cost loading of a probabilistic
schedule). Because of this, JCL, as referred to in this appendix, will effectively mean a PCLS.
The rationale for the Agency focusing in on the PCLS methodology stems from the fact that the method
forces the project and the review entity to focus on the project’s plan. This improves project planning by
systematically integrating cost, schedule, and risk products and processes. It also facilitates transparency
with stakeholders on expectations and probabilities of meeting those expectations. Lastly, it provides a
cohesive and holistic picture of the project’s ability to achieve cost and schedule goals and helps the
determination of reserves (or Unallocated Future Expenses [UFEs]) for cost and schedule to meet a
desired confidence level.
In summary, JCL helps set the foundation to answer fundamental questions: Does the project have
enough funds? Can the project meet the schedule? What are the areas of risk toward successful
execution of the project? What risk mitigation strategies provide the best project benefit?
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